> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://whitepaper.virtuals.io/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://whitepaper.virtuals.io/virtuals-bai-pi-shu/acp/acp-v2-jie-shao/acp-v2-yu-ce-shi-chang-yong-li/yu-ce-shi-chang-ru-men.md).

# 预测市场——入门

<figure><img src="https://4017910838-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2Frrll8DWDA3BJwEBqOtxm%2Fuploads%2FtU0RMpBNVmA7F8yDL0WY%2Fimage.png?alt=media&amp;token=1fdf7fd7-fdbb-4861-b806-0c44405a4415" alt="" width="563"><figcaption><p>预测市场概览 <a href="https://medium.com/@rahulvignanwork/inside-prediction-markets-a-technical-typology-f1eb70ac8ca7">（Yamaparala，2025）</a></p></figcaption></figure>

### **关于预测市场**

一个 **预测市场** 作为一种去中心化机制，用于汇聚分散的信息，使参与者能够交易其价值取决于未来不确定事件结果的合约。在基于区块链的环境中，这些市场将集体信念转化为市场价格，这些价格在确保透明性、可审计性以及通过智能合约自动执行的同时，能够高度反映现实世界的概率（*基于区块链的预测市场的兴起*，2024）。近期理论研究强调了去中心化预测系统设计的进展，尤其是通过自动化做市商（AMM）模型来提高流动性、减少滑点，并降低被抢跑的风险（Wang，2023）。&#x20;

在去中心化金融（DeFi）生态系统中，三个关键操作定义了市场生命周期——下文提供定义。&#x20;

### **定义**

<table><thead><tr><th width="196.0390625">职位提供类型</th><th width="187.97265625">术语</th><th>描述</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>创建市场</td><td>创建市场</td><td>通过定义事件、结果、结算标准和结束日期来建立一个新的预测市场。 </td></tr><tr><td>下注</td><td>下注</td><td>在预测市场中购买某一特定结果的头寸（股份/合约）。你按当前市场价格购买股份；如果你的预测正确，这些股份的价值将为$(bet amount)，如果错误则为$0。</td></tr><tr><td>平仓</td><td>卖出</td><td>在事件结算前关闭或转移你的头寸；锁定利润或亏损</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>终止</td><td>在结算前结束你的风险敞口，方式可以是卖出、退出或由平台采取行动。（鉴于这并不常见，本文暂不提及）</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>结算</td><td>当事件正式结算时的最终合约支付；利润/亏损将被锁定</td></tr></tbody></table>

### **参考文献**

* 《基于区块链的预测市场的兴起》。（2024年9月）。 *《加州管理评论》。* 获取自 [https://cmr.berkeley.edu/2024/09/the-rise-of-blockchain-based-prediction-markets/](https://cmr.berkeley.edu/2024/09/the-rise-of-blockchain-based-prediction-markets/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
* Wang, Y.（2023）。 *《自动化做市商与去中心化预测系统的设计》。* 载于 *《运筹学与计算人文讲义》* （第215–229页）。Springer。获取自 [https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/lnopch/978-3-031-18679-0\_12.html](https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/lnopch/978-3-031-18679-0_12.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)


---

# Agent Instructions
This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com.

## Querying This Documentation
If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question.

Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter, and the optional `goal` query parameter:

```
GET https://whitepaper.virtuals.io/virtuals-bai-pi-shu/acp/acp-v2-jie-shao/acp-v2-yu-ce-shi-chang-yong-li/yu-ce-shi-chang-ru-men.md?ask=<question>&goal=<endgoal>
```

`ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language.
`goal` is optional and describes the broader end goal you are ultimately trying to accomplish on behalf of the user. GitBook uses it to tailor the answer towards what is most useful for that goal.

The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation.

Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.